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Friday, March 16, 2018

Where's the Pitch?

By Justin J. Kumar

Choppy trading continues in the markets this week, with stocks down overall more in the US than abroad. Volatility levels continue to fall after the February spike, but ranges are still larger than at this time last year. The Buy signal will be celebrating its two-year anniversary, and we are still seeing green across the board in the Core Indicators. There have not been any new or additional signals since then, which is surprising over such a long cycle, and that observation is the reason that we have been patient and holding cash. We do strongly believe that the probabilities favor another buying opportunity this year, although from the recent price action, we find it difficult to make a more grounded prediction. The global Universe Trend indicator is falling, but it has not reversed in the same way the US version has. As a reminder, this indicator measures the percent of stocks in the measured group that show positive trends on their underlying Point and Figure charts. While we have not seen any erosion in the Core indicators, as time passes, the chances of a reversal increase, which could create that nice buying opportunity in 2018.


The Tactical Indicators remain Neutral this week. The 10-week moved to the 44% level, which is past the key 42% level that we have been watching. Thus, technically, a Bull confirmation has occurred, yet without much continuation as we have fallen back to around 40%. The Overbought/Oversold Indicator continues to fluctuate around the Bull Trend Average, which still has a rising slope, although perhaps flattening. Is this the extent of the correction for the MSCI All Country World Index or are we going to seeing another wave of selling? A 5-6% rise would take us back to the Overbought level. However, another shakeout of 5-6% takes us down to the low-risk Oversold level. It is difficult to predict the short-term direction of the market from these points. To reiterate, there is still a very strong economic and psychological support at the 500 level in the index.


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The Investor Education Institute (“IEI”) is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state.  The IEI publishes financial publications of general and regular circulation that offer impersonal advice and disinterested commentary and analysis.

The IEI utilizes a Proactive Asset Allocation Model (“PAAM”) that is designed to provide insight into investing in today’s financial markets. PAAM utilizes quantitative-based buy, sell and reallocation indicators, selecting from US and global securities, in seeking to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns over a long-term investment horizon. As with any investment strategy, IEI has in the past, and may in the future, modify this investment approach and parameters of PAAM in any manner which it believes is consistent with the strategy’s overall investment objective.  In that light, the following material modifications were made to PAAM: in February 2009 (creation of Universe Trend and Cash Comparison Indicators for trend analysis), June 2009 (creation of Long-Term Momentum Indicator for trend analysis), September 2009 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System and started computerized testing), December 2009 (creation of Global Indicator Set for buy and sell signals), April 2010 (inception of PAAM Computer Model), October 2010 (implementation of Tactical Indicators and Signals for short term risk management), January 2011 (modify Global Sell Signal with additional criteria including pattern determination), June 2011 (close Global Signals with stop loss criteria), September 2011 (inception of Long Only Model), May 2012 (modify Global Buy Signal wait period to enhance signal timing), October 2012 (first use of Stock Model), November 2012 (implement ETF replacement criteria), December 2012 (additional historical data for Cash Comparison Indicators), November 2015 (modify Global Buy Signal with additional criteria), June 2016 (modify Tactical Sell signal criteria), May 2018 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System, Tactical Asset Class Selling, Mini-Buy signal implementation); however, none of these changes modified the objectives or overall investment strategy of PAAM. Rather, as noted previously, IEI made these changes to seek to enhance the manner by which it runs PAAM, and thus each change, individually or in the aggregate, might have impacted the performance of PAAM (either positively or negatively, depending upon the efficacy of the changes(s)) after their implementation.  For more information regarding any of these material modifications, please contact IEI at 1-800-504-8505.

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