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Friday, August 11, 2017

What The World Needs Now

By Justin J. Kumar

A week can make a difference, and this week, we saw emotions and volatility move back into the markets. It’s unsure of whether or not the geopolitical risks of the North Korea nuclear situation will last for a long time or if they will be short-lived. We tend to see these types of actions as building the case for a correction within the current market cycle instead of as a change of the market cycle. We would have a shorter time for consolidation and a quicker potential recovery if the current military risk de-escalates. However, if the world begins preparing for war, there could be a significantly longer selloff with a longer path to recovery. Both the global and US markets were down this week, but we note that the Universe Trend Indicators for the US have put in reversals in both the Logarithmic and now the Traditional chart. This means that there was a 6% drop in the number of stocks with positive trends on their Traditional Point and Figure charts. We do not see the same pattern in the global UTI charts, which continue to hold their levels from the first quarter this year. We need to be open to how the breadth of market rally may be changing, perhaps with global leadership superseding the US, and remain aware of potential opportunities to invest globally should a full shift take place. Nevertheless, we still have no changes to any of the Core Indicators.


While the Tactical Indicators are still neutral, the 10-Week Indicator had a significant downward move to the 44% level, 8% of the drop happening just over the Thursday trading session. This action finally breaks the triangle pattern, and it sets up a potential move towards the Low Risk zone. The Overbought/Oversold Indicator has fallen to just over 1% above the Bull Trend Average. The MSCI All Country World Index has pulled back sharply this week from 480-level and moves closer to the Average. These are the times historically when corrections tend to develop before the seasonality switches in November. Perhaps the world news could be a catalyst this year as it was last year for a correction, as emotion takes over and volatility increases. We would welcome such a movement as happened last year with the surprise Brexit vote. Bouncing off the lows precipitated a nice recovery and set the global markets moving toward and then surpassing previous resistance points that were all-time highs. We do not usually see market cycles changing after achieving new highs, but we will continue to monitor the situation using our framework and model research.


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The Investor Education Institute (“IEI”) is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state.  The IEI publishes financial publications of general and regular circulation that offer impersonal advice and disinterested commentary and analysis.

The IEI utilizes a Proactive Asset Allocation Model (“PAAM”) that is designed to provide insight into investing in today’s financial markets. PAAM utilizes quantitative-based buy, sell and reallocation indicators, selecting from US and global securities, in seeking to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns over a long-term investment horizon. As with any investment strategy, IEI has in the past, and may in the future, modify this investment approach and parameters of PAAM in any manner which it believes is consistent with the strategy’s overall investment objective.  In that light, the following material modifications were made to PAAM: in February 2009 (creation of Universe Trend and Cash Comparison Indicators for trend analysis), June 2009 (creation of Long-Term Momentum Indicator for trend analysis), September 2009 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System and started computerized testing), December 2009 (creation of Global Indicator Set for buy and sell signals), April 2010 (inception of PAAM Computer Model), October 2010 (implementation of Tactical Indicators and Signals for short term risk management), January 2011 (modify Global Sell Signal with additional criteria including pattern determination), June 2011 (close Global Signals with stop loss criteria), September 2011 (inception of Long Only Model), May 2012 (modify Global Buy Signal wait period to enhance signal timing), October 2012 (first use of Stock Model), November 2012 (implement ETF replacement criteria), December 2012 (additional historical data for Cash Comparison Indicators), November 2015 (modify Global Buy Signal with additional criteria), June 2016 (modify Tactical Sell signal criteria), May 2018 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System, Tactical Asset Class Selling, Mini-Buy signal implementation); however, none of these changes modified the objectives or overall investment strategy of PAAM. Rather, as noted previously, IEI made these changes to seek to enhance the manner by which it runs PAAM, and thus each change, individually or in the aggregate, might have impacted the performance of PAAM (either positively or negatively, depending upon the efficacy of the changes(s)) after their implementation.  For more information regarding any of these material modifications, please contact IEI at 1-800-504-8505.

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