Friday, February 8, 2019

Buying Time and Space

By Justin J. Kumar

This week, in both the US and globally, stocks showed early gains, only to retreat towards the end. Despite better economic indicators in terms of jobless claims and manufacturing data, along with a seemingly positive State of the Union address, US-China trade fears sparked a selloff to start the first full week of February. For those more seasoned with our analysis and for the novices, it is important to remember that the stock markets do not always rise. The goal of our strategy is to weather these storms. Although it may appear trite, it is not always sunny and warm, metaphorically and factually, and at times, it can be frigid, as it has been recently in our neck of the woods. We are still on a Global Sell, but we are seeing continued progress in our indicators that could lead to a Global Buy and portfolio rotation. Our Universe Trend Indicator, which serves as more of a leading indicator, has risen in February on the Logarithmic chart and is on the verge of an accompaniment on the Traditional chart. As a reminder, this Indicator is the measure of the number of the stocks within the universe we track that have positive trends on their Pont-and-Figure charts. Thus, we are encouraged to see this type of progress. The Long Term Momentum Indicator came in Negative to end January, and it was slightly below the levels that we saw to end 2018, but there has been some stabilization. These momentum calculations finding a support for the Global Stock Index gives us hope in the seasonally strong 6-month period, historically speaking, that a Bull market make resume in the near future.

The Tactical Indicators have increased significantly this week. The 10-week Indicator has crossed through the High Risk level to the 78% mark. For those who track charts, we now have a triple top pattern from 2017 to 2019, but the most recent approach took place in February instead of January. The V-shaped bottom that we have discuss in previous updates, which is extremely rare, seems to have taken place in the short to intermediate term. We have moved from Low Risk to High Risk in a month, and that market action is rarely seen. The Overbought/Oversold indicator surged through the channel past the Highly Overbought level and is now more than 10% above the Trend Average. We often see such price action when the cycles are changing. However, the MSCI All-Country World Index has not approached the critical 500-level of resistance, although it is approaching. To reiterate, we do not envision a recession forming, and we still do not see a protracted Bear market developing. We know that it can be difficult to watch investments lose value over the short term, but we hope that taking a long-term wealth creation approach will serve our audience well, alongside the knowledge that we are the stewards of their hard-earned capital.

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Important Disclosures

The Investor Education Institute (“IEI”) is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state.  The IEI publishes financial publications of general and regular circulation that offer impersonal advice and disinterested commentary and analysis.

The IEI utilizes a Proactive Asset Allocation Model (“PAAM”) that is designed to provide insight into investing in today’s financial markets. PAAM utilizes quantitative-based buy, sell and reallocation indicators, selecting from US and global securities, in seeking to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns over a long-term investment horizon. As with any investment strategy, IEI has in the past, and may in the future, modify this investment approach and parameters of PAAM in any manner which it believes is consistent with the strategy’s overall investment objective.  In that light, the following material modifications were made to PAAM: in February 2009 (creation of Universe Trend and Cash Comparison Indicators for trend analysis), June 2009 (creation of Long-Term Momentum Indicator for trend analysis), September 2009 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System and started computerized testing), December 2009 (creation of Global Indicator Set for buy and sell signals), April 2010 (inception of PAAM Computer Model), October 2010 (implementation of Tactical Indicators and Signals for short term risk management), January 2011 (modify Global Sell Signal with additional criteria including pattern determination), June 2011 (close Global Signals with stop loss criteria), September 2011 (inception of Long Only Model), May 2012 (modify Global Buy Signal wait period to enhance signal timing), October 2012 (first use of Stock Model), November 2012 (implement ETF replacement criteria), December 2012 (additional historical data for Cash Comparison Indicators), November 2015 (modify Global Buy Signal with additional criteria), June 2016 (modify Tactical Sell signal criteria), May 2018 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System, Tactical Asset Class Selling, Mini-Buy signal implementation); however, none of these changes modified the objectives or overall investment strategy of PAAM. Rather, as noted previously, IEI made these changes to seek to enhance the manner by which it runs PAAM, and thus each change, individually or in the aggregate, might have impacted the performance of PAAM (either positively or negatively, depending upon the efficacy of the changes(s)) after their implementation.  For more information regarding any of these material modifications, please contact IEI at 1-800-504-8505.

The performance returns and investment strategies presented use PAAM and do not represent the results of actual trading using real assets. PAAM performance returns reflect the assumptions, views and analytical methods developed by members of the IEI. Hypothetical or model performance returns have certain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance results, model performance results do not represent actual trading and the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as market disruptions, lack of liquidity and the effect of interest rates. There can be no assurance that PAAM will perform similarly in the future.  No representation is being made that PAAM will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown. There frequently are sharp differences between the hypothetical or model performance results and the results subsequently achieved by PAAM when tracking performance results in real time. PAAM performance results are shown net of any assumed expenses or estimated fees (i.e., an estimated $10 brokerage fee per portfolio transaction), and reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. PAAM results shown reflect the hypothetical purchase and sale of securities using the average of the high and low price on the day the security was hypothetically transacted. Where a security was not available to represent exposure to a specific asset class, an index was used in its place. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Any index information presented is included for comparative purposes, to show general market trends during the periods indicated, and is not intended to imply that PAAM is similar to the index (or indices) shown either in composition or element of risk.  The MSCI All Country World Total Return Index is a broad index composed of stocks from the US, Developed International and Emerging International markets.  It is shown for comparative purposes because it represents the areas that PAAM considers for inclusion in the model, however, it should be noted that at any given time, the PAAM model will include securities from a narrow subset of these areas.

The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. The information shown is not tailored to any individual. There can be no assurance that any securities presented would be selected by PAAM in the future.  The securities listed for each model represent all portfolio holdings in that model as of the date shown.  Specific securities presented do not represent all securities that may be selected by PAAM for other models.  It should not be assumed that any of the securities presented have been or will be profitable.  The examples of specific investments are included merely to illustrate PAAM.

No graph, chart, formula or other device can be used to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. IEI makes no representation that any graph, chart, formula or other device shown can assist any person in making their own decisions as to which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them.

You should consider risk and volatility in addition to performance when making any investment decision. The risk and volatility associated with PAAM may be significantly higher or lower than the risk and volatility of other investment strategies and/or products.

As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as of loss. All investments involve some level of risk, and an account that utilizes PAAM may not be suitable for your particular investment goals. This presentation is intended solely for informational purposes. The information presented  is in no way a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment advisory services. The information presented and any performance returns and sample investment portfolios contained herein do not consider specific investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any individual investor who may view this presentation. You should seek advice from your financial advisor regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or in accordance with any investment strategy.

All information regarding market or other financial information presented is obtained from sources that IEI believes to be reliable. IEI makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of information or data provided herein. Individuals that work for IEI and its affiliates may have long or short positions in the securities presented herein, or in related investments.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates presented are forward-looking statements and are based on certain assumptions.  Other events which were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of PAAM.  Any projections, outlooks or estimates should not be construed to be indicative of actual events that will occur.

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