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Friday, November 9, 2018

Some of the Above

By Justin J. Kumar

The markets may be seeing some recovery this week, but there has continued to be a struggle after several weeks of falling prices through the end of the seasonally weaker 6-month period. The seasonality effect of the switch to the stronger period, along with the fourth quarter in the second year of a presidential term, may provide a boon after the recent weakness. However, our analysis has revealed a Sell signal with all of the Core Indicators being negative. The recent lows of the cycle could be behind us, but global markets are still struggling. Emerging markets may have bounced, but there is the potential for an external crisis to flood the US markets with selling pressure. We still cannot rule out if a longer-term Bear market may develop. With the midterm elections passed and the expected outcome of a reversal of party control in the House of Representatives taking place, we now can focus more on market price action and economic data to drive further analysis.


Our Tactical Indicators have continued upwards this week. The 10-week has swung up to 40% after putting in a 12% low in October. There has been a short-term shakeout of risk, so momentum is now moving to the upside. We can see several quicker movements in the 10-week indicator, and it could take some time to build a support. Currently, we are seeing a reversal back up, so the low that we saw in the market a couple weeks ago could be a low at least for the short term. We will have to see how substantial it is. The Overbought/Oversold has risen again this week as well, and we are now approaching a break of the Bear trend channel. There could be another move upward if the MSCI All Country World Index moves through the 500-level. It has failed to cross so far this week, but there could be a short-term opportunity to deploy capital. A Buy signal could develop if the action continues to the upside.


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The Investor Education Institute (“IEI”) is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state.  The IEI publishes financial publications of general and regular circulation that offer impersonal advice and disinterested commentary and analysis.

The IEI utilizes a Proactive Asset Allocation Model (“PAAM”) that is designed to provide insight into investing in today’s financial markets. PAAM utilizes quantitative-based buy, sell and reallocation indicators, selecting from US and global securities, in seeking to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns over a long-term investment horizon. As with any investment strategy, IEI has in the past, and may in the future, modify this investment approach and parameters of PAAM in any manner which it believes is consistent with the strategy’s overall investment objective.  In that light, the following material modifications were made to PAAM: in February 2009 (creation of Universe Trend and Cash Comparison Indicators for trend analysis), June 2009 (creation of Long-Term Momentum Indicator for trend analysis), September 2009 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System and started computerized testing), December 2009 (creation of Global Indicator Set for buy and sell signals), April 2010 (inception of PAAM Computer Model), October 2010 (implementation of Tactical Indicators and Signals for short term risk management), January 2011 (modify Global Sell Signal with additional criteria including pattern determination), June 2011 (close Global Signals with stop loss criteria), September 2011 (inception of Long Only Model), May 2012 (modify Global Buy Signal wait period to enhance signal timing), October 2012 (first use of Stock Model), November 2012 (implement ETF replacement criteria), December 2012 (additional historical data for Cash Comparison Indicators), November 2015 (modify Global Buy Signal with additional criteria), June 2016 (modify Tactical Sell signal criteria), May 2018 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System, Tactical Asset Class Selling, Mini-Buy signal implementation); however, none of these changes modified the objectives or overall investment strategy of PAAM. Rather, as noted previously, IEI made these changes to seek to enhance the manner by which it runs PAAM, and thus each change, individually or in the aggregate, might have impacted the performance of PAAM (either positively or negatively, depending upon the efficacy of the changes(s)) after their implementation.  For more information regarding any of these material modifications, please contact IEI at 1-800-504-8505.

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